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Research into the condition has led scientists to believe that diabetes could be a far bigger problem than anticipated
Forecasts of soaring rates of diabetes in the next two decades may be wildly underestimated, a new study suggests.
Evidence from Canada indicates that the diabetes "time-bomb" may be a far worse global health threat than anyone has imagined.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that the prevalence of diabetes among adults will reach 6.4% by 2030 - a 60% increase since 1995.
But researchers found that in Ontario, the proportion of people suffering from the disease had already far outstripped that estimate.
Between 1995 and 2005, diabetes prevalence in the Canadian province rose by 69%
In just five years from 2000 to 2005, diabetes rates in Ontario increased by 27%. In comparison, the WHO has predicted a 39% increase in prevalence between 2000 and 2030.
The vast majority of these cases involve non-insulin dependent, or type 2 diabetes, which often goes hand-in-hand with obesity.
One reason for the surge in Ontario could be that the region has attracted a lot of immigrant southern Asians, who are known to be prone to the condition.
But despite this, the authors of the new research believe the new findings point to an alarming trend with potentially devastating consequences worldwide.
Diabetes statistics :
- Diabetes can lead to a host of serious health problems, including heart disease and blindness.
- The disease occurs when the body cannot properly utilise sugar to provide energy. This results from either a lack of insulin - the hormone that controls sugar use - or because the effects of insulin are no longer felt.
- Around 2.2 million people in the UK have diabetes - 3.5% of the population.
- According to the WHO, the number of people in the world with diabetes rose from 30 million to 171 million between 1985 and 2000.
- An estimated 4.6% adults aged 20 years or older are now affected worldwide.
Predictions
Researchers led by Dr Lorraine Lipscombe, from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Toronto, used population-based data from Ontario to examine diabetes trends.
They reported in The Lancet medical journal: "In view of this linear growth in prevalence, more than 10% of the adult population of Ontario will be diagnosed with diabetes before 2010. If similar trends are occurring throughout developed countries, then the size of the emerging diabetes epidemic is far greater than anticipated.
"Rising rates of obesity could be the cause of this striking growth and, accordingly, effective public health interventions to manage and prevent obesity are sorely needed.
"Future research should also focus on identification of high-risk socio-demographic groups for whom specific interventions might be required."
An editorial in The Lancet said every country needed its own customised policy of care to deal with diabetes.
